|
MaMaBay Climate Vulnerability Assessment
The MaMaBay landscape, comprising Makira Natural Park, Masoala National Park, and Antongil Bay, contains some of Madagascar’s most intact remaining forest. Among the many threatened species present in the area are the critically endangered and range-restricted Silky Sifaka and Red Ruffed Lemur. Antongil Bay, in addition to providing critical livelihoods and food security through its fisheries, is also a major calving ground for Humpback Whales.
In addition to the unique flora and fauna, the MaMaBay region’s natural resources support over 250,000 people. Slash-and-burn (tavy) agriculture is the major threat to the region, as it drives deforestation, which in turn leads to erosion and sedimentation, requiring further clearing of forest to maintain agricultural production. This situation is exacerbated by reduced fishing yields, which can force coastal villages to turn to other sources of food, including tavy agriculture and bushmeat.
Climate change is expected to exacerbate the challenges faced by conservation activities in this region. To better understand how climate change might affect the region, we performed a
comprehensive climate vulnerability assessment that examines the potential impacts of climate change on human livelihoods and ecosystems, in the context of the current challenges faced by the region.
Broadly, the areas to the west and south of Makira have lower forest cover and higher
deforestation rates, higher exposure to future climate risks, and lower indicators of socioeconomic
adaptive capacity. Moreover, those same areas are predicted to have outsized importance for
future climate corridors, meaning that restoring them and preserving the remaining forest is crucial
to ensuring that climate refugia for the protected areas are also secured. Table ES 1 below gives
an overview of the climate vulnerabilities of the two terrestrial protected areas.
Table ES 2 provides suggested guidance for actions in the community-based natural resource
management areas (COBAs). Broadly speaking, we recommend that for COBAs with low forest
cover, COBA governance and management should be focused on restoration, while in COBAs
with high forest cover those activities should focus on protection. Additionally, COBAs low
socioeconomic indicators and/or higher risks from climate should be prioritized for livelihood
diversification and other potential activities. Finally, COBAs with rapidly increasing rates of
deforestation require monitoring and support to understand what is driving deforestation and why
current governance mechanisms are failing.
In the marine realm, projected changes to salinity, pH and sea surface temperature are relatively
uniform; however, indicators of marine productivity indicate potential challenges for the Bay itself
and the Sava coast, while the changes are likely to be less drastic in the south part of the Bay
and along the Analanjirofo coast. Table ES 3 provides general recommendations for actions in
the locally managed marine areas (LMMAs) that will help reduce climate vulnerabilities. Broadly
speaking, areas with high current pressure and/or projected declines in marine productivity should
prioritize fisheries management, along with sustainable diversified terrestrial livelihood options.
Conversely, areas with stable fishery conditions can continue to rely on those areas and cooperate with neighbouring communities to allow for shared use of LMMAs; however, those
areas will require enhanced community-based monitoring of both stocks and catch to ensure their
sustainability.
In addition to the specific recommendations described above, we recommend the following, more
generalized management actions:
- Developing a comprehensive biodiversity monitoring plan for the two protected areas, including vegetation and amphibians, to track the impacts of climate change
- Concentrating enforcement actions around areas of recent and/or increasing
deforestation, as well as around projected climate corridors and refugia
- Prioritizing restoration activities in COBAs with low remaining forest cover, particularly
those that also have high importance as climate corridors/refugia (e.g. Soavera
(Tsaravilona) in Makira-4)
- Prioritize protection and governance activities in COBAs with high remaining forest
cover, particularly those that have high importance as climate corridors/refugia (e.g.
Antsahantitra in Makira-6, Manandriana Ambinany in Makira-4)
- Collaborate with communities to create comprehensive monitoring plans for fisheries
stocks and catch in LMMAs, to better track fishing yields over time
- Collaborate with communities to monitor biodiversity in forested COBAs; where
feasible, community-based ecotourism may help incentivize forest protection
- Utilize agroforestry as a first step towards restoration and/or restoration of connectivity;
match crop choice (e.g. cacao, coffee, vanilla, cloves) to current and future climatic
suitability
- Promote the use of SRI and other land-sparing techniques in areas with suitable
topography, especially where the future suitability of irrigated rice is likely to increase
(e.g. Marojao and Ambavala in Makira-4)
- Coordination of activities with other entities active in the broader region adjacent to
MaMaBay, including government entities such as Madagascar National Parks as well
as other NGOs
|